OANDA is introducing First In First Out (FIFO) to comply ...

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two
So yesterday I created the first part to the 'post' Today I'll continue it.
All markets, equities, cars, widgets, groceries, bonds and even forex are driven by volume. Without volume there is no movement as it's the market maker to entice the trader to aggressively buy or sell based upon their sentiments of direction.
So let's first put into perspective market sentiment and what it is for this posts purpose.
Sentiment is the psychological pressure of trader expectations in movement. It's visible through intermarket analysis and even some indexes when the indexes are properly cross referenced. But sentiment is visible even when candles stop their climb or when buying pressure supports the prices on an attempt to move lower. What comes after sentiment builds it's pressure is the path of least resistance and that's really what the markets are doing. Following the path of least resistance with volume as the rivers boundaries.
Volume in foreign exchange is real.
Retail traders think that because the market is decentralized that volume isn't available. Well, the broker you connect to, and the prime broker or bank that they connect to, they source their pricing with risk management modules by analyzing aggregated volume. Aggregation is a grouping of FX liquidity streams (that all include volume levels) into one hub of liquidity housed inside a limit order book. Volume is not made available to you though. It's the playground of the banks and if you're going to have access to a tool that allows the masses to dilute their returns do you think they would let you have it freely? Nope! They would though lobby for laws (Dodd-Frank, FIFO etc etc come to mind here) they all make it more difficult for you to trade!!!! Opacity!!! But volume is very real, it only needs proper aggregation!
So how do we find valuable opportunities when studying the charts? First off, if you study the charts alone you're doing yourself a great disservice! EURUSD in any time frame is just a representation of a relationship between two currencies. You need to study the value of the underlying currencies!
What that provides you is precision entries. Let's call the entry on Candle 12 (an arbitrary number). On candle 12 you see USDCHF spike higher, that would indicate that EURUSD is going to drop 96% of the time! Oh a little insight! So you take a position short EURUSD on candle 12 in expectation that the relationship between the two currencies is going to go lower because of the strength in the Dollar.
But remember, exchange rate fluctuation is the path of least resistance. So at the point where you have found your entry short in EURUSD, there is the opposite consideration. What if I am wrong? What it if goes the other way? At what price would it show me the opposite direction and how long do I have to wait to confirm a reversal? Candle 12 is magical. It tells you what you need. You see, in ALL instances, extremes high or lows of charts are seen by changes in what's called bid/ask bounce. When bid ask bounce is breached it's giving you sentiment, volume and price all shifting directions. If candle 12 is the candle short, then the high immediately prior to candle 12 is your reversal point!
I guarantee you this is the intersection of buyers and sellers, and when one defeats the other the market changes direction. This is true for all of the entries here, if price reversed before it reached a profitable exit then the reverse would in fact be at the opposite extreme prior to the entry candle.
So we go back and visit the adage buy low/sell high but what happens in between? Proper analysis is an active participation. And just as your analysis says you should buy or sell, your analysis should also tell you how the market is reacting in the middle. If there's no change or breach in bid/ask bounce the trend is still moving.
In the attached chart. When an entry signal is confirmed, the immediate high or low prior to that entry becomes the exact reversal point. (I have circled them in yellow) In most of the opportunities shown that stop loss is a mere 2.2 pips away from the entry price and there are no reversals that were required and all signals were profitably identified. No I did not trade them, this is live analysis that runs continually. Of all the signals there is ONE blue X in the center region of the chart that almost gave a sell signal but price pressures remained in tact and thus bullish. The analysis identifies over 100 pips in movement within a range of 35 pips overall. And none of it with lagging analysis.
With proper analysis, you can maximize your returns by comprehensively understanding all market conditions. You'll minimize your losing trades to negligible frequencies, your gains will be maximized and you'll see precisely how the market moves, turns, breathes and follows the path of least resistance.
Now my purpose here is to develop market transparency for the little guy. Sure my posts attract trolls because the trolls have been burned by their own trading ignorance. So they attack those that strive for and deliver something better, in fact most of them don't know how to trade to save their life and that's their anger. I could show you a few of them who have had accounts with companies I advise or am principal of - but there are privacy rights to respect. Do I do this free? On here of course. Is it a business? I've spent over a million dollars in just research, but when I experienced how expensive it was to obtain true transparency I knew there were benefits to providing this information to retail traders.
https://preview.redd.it/367rn2d6p3s51.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e99e1604a078b6aa0916f32be91ce16bc5196320
submitted by iTradeSocial to u/iTradeSocial [link] [comments]

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.
TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.
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As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
Setup Examples.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.

https://preview.redd.it/t4whwijse2721.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9050529c6e2472a3ff9f8e7137bd4a3ee5554cc
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.

https://preview.redd.it/2cd682kve2721.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d081c9faff49d0976f9ffab260aaed2b570309
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.

https://preview.redd.it/mhkgy35ze2721.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18278b85b10278603e5c9c80eb98df3e6878232
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).

https://preview.redd.it/1ytz2431f2721.png?width=1322&format=png&auto=webp&s=983a7f2a91f9195004ad8a2aa2bb9d4d6f128937
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.

https://preview.redd.it/1bx83776f2721.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c76c3085598ae70f4142d26c46c8d6e9b1c2881
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.

Edit: Addition.

I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.

Update -

Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).

Account tracking/copying details.

Low-Medium risk.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
Server: Demo:01
(Not FIFO compliant)

Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.

Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E

Examples;

“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.

“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
Also valid.

“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
Definitely valid.

These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.

Invalid Complains;

“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.

“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.

“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.

“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.

“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.

“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.

“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).

“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.

“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.

I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.

Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.

Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.

I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.

I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.

https://preview.redd.it/yc2c4jfpab721.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=c377686b2485e13171318c9861f42faf325437e1


Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.

Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.

I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.

Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.

Update.

Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.

$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.

Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;

https://preview.redd.it/u3u6teqd7c721.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b958747b37b68ec2a769a8368b5cbebfe0e97ff
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

Open Letter to the Sceptical

Edit: For those who down-vote but do not debate.

https://preview.redd.it/yc7ak1jvbp821.png?width=473&format=png&auto=webp&s=48dd3f89f1e580c20198c32e48655a2da34ac99e

I want to cover points made in a recent post. You can see full here.
https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/ac068f/i_got_banned_from_rforex/

It raises the points that I think people who have a gripe with what I am doing are feeling. I want to openly, and cordially, discuss/debate these points. With the OP, or anyone else of their thinking.
Lies hide in darkness. I am here to talk in the light, baby.
I have messaged the OP to invite them here. Let's talk. We might just both be on the same side.
(Edit: The OP has declined to opportunity to further discuss this matter).

Ask questions. Do not make assumptions. The truth will out.

I will go through this comment in sections, but here it is in it’s entirety so you can see nothing is quoted out of context.

https://preview.redd.it/4xwr9fmnyk821.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=71396b76baa76504bd8d1a8a1c97134d7d9bf0ee


https://preview.redd.it/rmuiq8lqyk821.png?width=552&format=png&auto=webp&s=10c6f5caabf29cbbb8730b2b3ca93446dbb05ec2
This is not about /Forex, it is about prejudice. forex is old news for me now.


https://preview.redd.it/6ep95q9uyk821.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a29ac2ab7eb7028dccc30465df4b5f15bdcb932
I am not. I could cite so many examples to show I am not. If you go to the MQL5 site, you will find thousands of people telling you they have a way to make money in Forex and telling you how you can use it. None of these people are purporting to be financial advisors, nor required to be so. Start going to the websites of anywhere offering Forex tools or tips, scroll to the bottom of the page and read the risk disclaimer.
This is something that is clearly stated in ForexCopy. It is a bread and butter thing in this industry. 100,000s of thousands of services do what I am doing (and charge). Anyone who cares to know, can go and verify the things I have said. Everything is provided for educational purposes only. I do not know anyone well enough to make any sort of suggestions as to what they should do with their personal money. I am saying what I am doing … you do you.


https://preview.redd.it/0jlbrd4xyk821.png?width=590&format=png&auto=webp&s=bde05a5133bdd59055c2dec3fbfcaeaebaba3626

Okay. I did update the FX Blue, though. Didn’t I? I showed the results. Everyone can see the results, everyone has fair information to make their choice on that. User set risk settings. I can blow my account without copiers doing so, if they choose. Anyone can clearly prevent ultra-high risk trading with these settings, and this account shows them why that could be worth doing.


https://preview.redd.it/axdy6o20zk821.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=74d442182ad91486cea459324b9175f79d77c85e
I tell people to trade with IC Markets because they are the best. Tell me a better broker if you disagree. Let’s do a proper comparison. If that broker is better, I will duly adjust the broker I say is the best to trade with.


https://preview.redd.it/tkyicch2zk821.png?width=571&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a824a961dec575f25b60a5766d819d1731d4b48
It does matter. If they were to lose with trading 0.1 lots, for example, I would make maybe $0.20 from each person. $20 per a hundred. Sometimes we should not ask questions in case we get the answers to them, but do I really seem like I could not work out a way to make this sort of money not fucking anyone over? It’s not a bank job.
However, if they win … and maybe even if they read all my posts in here and get some trader knows, they will have a bankroll in IC markets, know how to conserve and increase that and keep trading. In which case … this is awesome for me. This is my win. This is my payout end game. I am doing this to help people, if I do it right; that is how I benefit. It does matter if they win or lose if my main concern is making money. I stop making money if they lose. Then there is ethics, but we are talking only things that individuals can personally logic check, so fuck it, let’s just say I am a prick. Still matters. Matters muchy.
On a side note, I have explained the strategy fully. So if I was to "commission whore" by opening and closing trades just for the sake of it, this would be quickly obvious. I post analysis and reasoning for all my trades. I post the risk taken in the trade. https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/acggwp/trading_journal_for_medium_risk_single_shot_copy/
If I do things that are conflicts of interest, or show lack of care for clients funds; these things will be seen. Clearly seen. I have provided all the data. People can log directly into the trading account. There is no-where to hide sneakiness. I designed it this way.


https://preview.redd.it/klrxtiaozk821.png?width=482&format=png&auto=webp&s=28f801062a2cc2cead1d611e23582fae93dda261
Name a deception or case of dishonesty. My losses are posted publicly. My affiliation clearly disclosed, and you are literally only basing deception on the idea you think I am flippant about them losing money. Which is unfounded.


https://preview.redd.it/gguvp0gqzk821.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=303d7507a27f9649381daa198ddcd895d6b56fbf
If I was selfish and greedy, I would do this and I’d do it with a broker paying me 500% more. Want to test this? Go to brokers websites and start emailing them and asking them what they pay their IBs. Find out how greedy I am being. I know all my options.
If I am only manipulating naive people, I can sign them up to a terrible broker the same as a good one? Why would I take this big cut in my profit margin? Especially if I didn’t care of they lost and wanted the most upfront?
This does not actually make sense. Why would I not do it in a model where I could place their trades so I could trade bigger lots? Why would I let them control that? I certainly know how to do that. It would be more profitable for me. This is the least profitable way this can be done. I am not even forcing people to join ICM. Terribly inefficient brutal capitalism.


https://preview.redd.it/f24yzbxszk821.png?width=674&format=png&auto=webp&s=78fe684a32262f334126990a3bc7cc781a94da89
I do not want ignorant followers. I do not even want followers. I want a crowd of thinkers. Let’s think. Be rational. Have healthy scepticism without corrosive cynicism. I post everything. All my trades. Why I take them. How I developed the strategies. If people are ignorant, I hope they leave. I want people who are observant, and make use of the things I take the time to do for them.


https://preview.redd.it/lfzyfaoxzk821.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=4b82479ff93a627ac2e92db3c59f5a806b3792dd
My only advice to people is to think for themselves. Do their own diligence and make prudent and conscious decisions.


UPDATE;

Unless anyone can raise any unique points , backed up with facts, logic and common sense, I think I've now said everything I have to say on this.

From here, I talk with results. I invite anyone else to do so also. They are the only thing that matter.
https://www.reddit.com/ForexCopy/comments/acg7ux/fifo_high_and_medium_risk_single_shot_strategies/
forexcopy
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust

And with music. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBjQ9tuuTJQ&list=RDZT9CZ4QbdCU&index=27

From now on, if people talk without actually using any logic or facts to back up what they are saying, since it will appear to me you have neglected to come up with an actual original idea, I will just respond to that by posting song lyrics. I consider them to be equally valuable.

submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Avoiding FIFO and/or possibly the 50:1 leverage cap in US

I'm pretty sure the answer is still no, but in case I've missed anything I thought I'd ask since I'm currently looking for a broker.
Are there any US regulated brokers that offer forex trading without the FIFO restrictions?
Pretty sure there are none that offer greater than 50:1 leverage but figured I'd about it ask well anyways. Mostly just concerned with FIFO. Hedging is not of any concern to me.
submitted by mrshinko to Forex [link] [comments]

FIFO High and Medium risk Single Shot Strategies

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.

Still having some issues with multiple trade accounts, but it is not as big a deal now. I know how to fix it, just have not done it yet. FIFO accounts will be fine. Since they are just taking single isolated trades.
With that being said, if you want to follow with live funds, it would be prudent for you to do the following;
Set maximum open positions that can be copied to one (if there are problems, this filters them from your account).
Set maximum lot size (this is optional)
Set default lot size. (If you set default lot sizes, and maximum open positions, this gives you good risk caps).
Set equity stop loss. (Set your maximum accepted loss).
It is extremely highly recommended you test on demo accounts. Even if you intend to copy on a live account, first test on demo. Get a hang the hang of how the strategy works. Get used to using the risk control copy settings, and make sure all is working correctly.
If linking up accounts, it would be very useful to me if you could also link them with Myfxbook/FX Blue (live or demo) and post the links to them. Then I can see how trades are working on different brokers.
Notes on this;
High risk is very high, it should be expected to have losses in the 25% - 40% range in losing streaks.
Medium risk will aim to keep under 25% maximum loss. More commonly inside 20%.
Remember you can scale down risk using your copier risk settings. DO NOT SCALE UP RISK. Please don’t. It is a hard variable to account for when using already above average risk.

Medium Risk

IC Markets MT4
MT4#: 10308969
Investor PW: jBuIvEi5
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/medium-fifo/2868212

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.


High Risk

IC Markets MT4
MT4#: 10308884
iNVESTOR pw: JFJ55ED4SW
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/high-risk-fifo/2868072


https://preview.redd.it/r59457vv9d821.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=881d5d85765c7a54b50dca6ed3ccf46ce2ab61f9

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.

If copying and linking Myfxbook, FX Blue; please post them in the comments. That would be most helpful. Thanks.

Got the start of a portfolio now. The high risk no FIFO day trading account look like a wash, that was the one with too many orders on it. Check back on the portfolio page for others being added over the weekend. Will fix up the multiple trades thing for next week.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust

Trading journal for medium risk account.
https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/acggwp/trading_journal_for_medium_risk_single_shot_copy/

submitted by inweedwetrust to ForexCopy [link] [comments]

Copy trading - FIFO Medium and High Risk

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.

Still having some issues with multiple trade accounts, but it is not as big a deal now. I know how to fix it, just have not done it yet. FIFO accounts will be fine. Since they are just taking single isolated trades.
With that being said, if you want to follow with live funds, it would be prudent for you to do the following;
Set maximum open positions that can be copied to one (if there are problems, this filters them from your account).
Set maximum lot size (this is optional)
Set default lot size. (If you set default lot sizes, and maximum open positions, this gives you good risk caps).
Set equity stop loss. (Set your maximum accepted loss).
It is extremely highly recommended you test on demo accounts. Even if you intend to copy on a live account, first test on demo. Get a hang the hang of how the strategy works. Get used to using the risk control copy settings, and make sure all is working correctly.
If linking up accounts, it would be very useful to me if you could also link them with Myfxbook/FX Blue (live or demo) and post the links to them. Then I can see how trades are working on different brokers.
Notes on this;
High risk is very high, it should be expected to have losses in the 25% - 40% range in losing streaks.
Medium risk will aim to keep under 25% maximum loss. More commonly inside 20%.
Remember you can scale down risk using your copier risk settings. DO NOT SCALE UP RISK. Please don’t. It is a hard variable to account for when using already above average risk.

Medium Risk

IC Markets MT4
MT4#: 10308969
Investor PW: jBuIvEi5
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/medium-fifo/2868212

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.


High Risk

IC Markets MT4
MT4#: 10308884
iNVESTOR pw: JFJ55ED4SW
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/high-risk-fifo/2868072


https://preview.redd.it/yylr00wnad821.png?width=1366&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1d809603c1846aabed7aa3a42049a517ba65f9a

Read this before making any decisions pertaining to copy trading.It contains important information to help you to understand what you are doing.

If copying and linking Myfxbook, FX Blue; please post them in the comments. That would be most helpful. Thanks.

Got the start of a portfolio now. The high risk no FIFO day trading account look like a wash, that was the one with too many orders on it. Check back on the portfolio page for others being added over the weekend. Will fix up the multiple trades thing for next week.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust


Learn more at ForexCopy
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Forex Trading solutions for US Forex Robot traders. Use Offshore Brokers. Free PDF Download & Video One4All - Live Demo Video - No Hedging Rule Best Offshore Forex Brokers for US Citizens (2020) FX Choice was chosen Winner of the Best Customer Service Chanllenge Opening a Foreign Account with a Foreign Broker

Starting May 30, 2011, OANDA is introducing “First In First Out” (FIFO), a forex trading policy that complies with National Futures Association (NFA) regulations. If you keep multiple open positions of the same size and same currency pair, this new trading policy may mean important changes to how you manage these trades. If you wish that you could implement Forex hedging with a US Forex broker and not have to follow the FIFO rule, then this post is for you. There are ways to legally get around both of these restrictions, if you do a little advanced planning. Before I get started, please read this entire post, especially the warning at the end. These are advanced tactics and definitely not for beginners! Even ... Brokers that accept US clients are becoming increasingly scarce as US regulators continue to threaten any broker that accepts US clients without US regulation. Earlier in the year we saw the biggest offshore broker still accepting US clients, FinFX, fold to the pressure and restrict US clients from opening or operating accounts. However, since then I'm not aware of any further action against ... Finding a legitimate forex broker that doesn’t require a thorough identity verification check, or KYC (know your customer) is not an easy task. To make life a little easier, here is a small… There is no way around that. One forex broker may charge you 10 times less for the same trade than another. Take note of “hidden” fees, such as withdrawals fees, or inactivity fees. Market Coverage – You need to be able to trade the fx pair or product of your choice/preference. Accessibility and Affordability – Beginner forex traders and small-timers need love too. You should never be ... NFA Rule 2-43(b) The NFA recently enacted Rule 2-43(b) which effectively eliminates hedging by forcing brokers to close trades on a First In First Out (FIFO) basis. The NFA has added clarification to the rule, stating that customers can instruct their broker to off-set like sized positions. If you’re a forex trader who is planning to involve handing with a Forex broker based in the United States and you’re required to abide by the rules under FIFO. You must read this article carefully from the beginning to the close. Many ways and techniques are there – when you understand and put them to work, it will help you deal with issues under these restrictive rules. For this, you ...

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Forex Trading solutions for US Forex Robot traders. Use Offshore Brokers. Free PDF Download & Video

US Forex Robot traders have many Hedging, FIFO ands leverage restrictions. Here are some offshore broker solutions. https://forum.moneymakingforextools.c... This video walks you through the process of opening a live (or demo) account with a broker that offers Leverage up to 400:1, NO FIFO, Hedging, super low comm... Here is the best forex platforms&broker for USA traders: https://goo.gl/V660UG This Broker taking U.S. Clients with hedging, scalping and no FIFO. Get more information about fx trading accounts ... If you are searching for the best offshore forex brokers for US clients or the top ones accepting US residents, you are definitely fed up with the restrictions, set out by NFA and CFTC, such as ... One4All by pimpmyea.com A tool that lets you trade ANY automatic and/or manual forex strategy in your US broker account that are usually limited by the FIFO/no-hedge rules. In this video we show a ...

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